Competitors, tracked
Every rival's accounts, launches, hires and pricing changes followed over time, so each company page stays current rather than dated.
A living index of the expert-data market · 15 markets · 16 niches · 3341 posts archived
Fifteen markets where someone stands in the middle, assembles a supply nobody else can reach, and keeps the difference. The survey is done and the question has narrowed: one market, and which single domain to own inside it.
And it does not stand still: the companies, the people inside them and what they are saying, indexed as it happens.
The research below was a snapshot. This is becoming the running record of the whole market: every company in it, every person worth knowing inside those companies, and what all of them are doing and saying — updated continuously, archived permanently, and cross-linked to the analysis.
X and LinkedIn in one timeline — 26 companies and 93 of their people. Nothing is deleted when it scrolls off the platform.
One researched dossier per founder, executive and researcher — career, what they have said on the record, who they know, and why they matter to a new entrant.
Every rival's accounts, launches, hires and pricing changes followed over time, so each company page stays current rather than dated.
Fifteen markets became one — expert data for frontier labs — then sixteen candidate domains became three dossiers, and the lane is now chosen: creative work and taste. The earlier rounds are kept whole rather than tidied away, because the reasoning is the point.
Contra Labs' lane, entered deliberately. Two funded specialists, a free arena collecting four hundred times the volume, a generalist already paying more than either, and one asymmetric advantage a European operator has and an American one cannot. Plus seventy people worth talking to, mapped.
What has to be true for a specialist to beat a generalist, why the company that inspired this is not what it appears to be, and the trade-off that decides it: proven budgets come with captured benchmarks, and open benchmarks come with no budget.
Speed to proof, budget now, defensibility, cost to start, reachability of the supply, and how much of the position is still open. Same six questions of every domain.
Eight sub-markets, each with its own verifier, buyer and price. The six firms a lab already pays are now named, five contract values are on the public record, and the elite tier of the labour turns out to cost three times what the first pass assumed.
Thirteen specialties, and the cost objection that killed clinical medicine in the screen applies to exactly one of them. The regulator has written the product specification, and one requirement in it cannot be met after the fact.
The taste read · the build plan · the people map
All 16 niches · the 9 companies that already picked one · the Contra Labs dossier
Every vertical page answers the same six questions in the same order, so the answers sit side by side. Four of them do most of the work.
How much money sits behind the buying decision, and how urgently it must be spent.
How hard the seller side is to assemble. Hard is good: it is the only thing a competitor cannot copy in a weekend.
What fraction of the money passing through you, you actually keep.
Whether buyer and seller can cut you out once they have met, and whether one buyer can end you.
Whether capable models grow this budget or delete it.
How long from a standing start to a real invoice.
The rubric, and the argument for why these six and not others, is in the framework. The name for the mechanism — and why it is not a marketplace, a staffing firm or an agency, though it is sold as all three — is in what the model is.
Ranked by the six scores. The sum is a blunt instrument and the ranking is a judgement, not a measurement — but the order is where the argument starts.
14 topic pages on the mechanism itself: what a rake can be, why gross revenue is not revenue, what actually stops a buyer and a seller cutting you out, and what the law does to a crowd in December.
Rake, gross versus net, multiples, and what the buyer pool is really worth.
→ What a rake can actually be→ GMV is not revenue→ What the public market pays for labour→ How much money is actually in the buyer pool
Leakage, cold start, concentration, and the difference between a marketplace and an agency.
→ Getting cut out→ Which side you build first→ One customer is a binary event→ You pay weekly, they pay in sixty days→ Marketplace, staffing firm, BPO or agency
Models, law, geography and fraud.
→ What better models do to each layer→ The law is about to arrive→ Who is actually on the other end→ Selling through the investor→ Where the supply can legally live
189 pages, roughly 305,000 words, and still growing — the atlas was one pass, the niche work is the live edge.
Every page carries a confidence mark and every number that comes from a leak, a press claim or a company's own blog is marked as such. The open questions page lists what we could not establish, and it is long on purpose.
Almost every company here is private and discloses nothing it is not forced to. Take rates are inferred, revenue figures conflict between reputable outlets by factors of two, and the single most important number in the sector — what a frontier lab actually pays for human data — has never been disclosed by anyone.
How this was built and where it is weak · the evidence register